TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ran, Youhua
AU  - Cheng, Guodong
AU  - Dong, Yuanhong
AU  - Hjort, Jan
AU  - Lovecraft, Amy Lauren
AU  - Kang, Shichang
AU  - Tan, Meibao
AU  - Li, Xin
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/10/13
TI  - Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole
JO  - Communications Earth & Environment
SP  - 238
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
AB  - The damage to infrastructure caused by near-surface permafrost degradation is directly related to the well-being of 10 million people and the sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Third Pole of the Earth. Here we identify the economic damage caused by permafrost degradation to infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by integrating data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement model. We found that additional cost of approximately $6.31 billion will be needed to maintain the service function of current infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) by 2090. While 20.9% of these potential costs can be saved with strategic adaptations. Controlling global warming to below 1.5 °C will reduce the costs by $1.32 billion relative to the 2 °C target of Paris Agreement. These findings highlight the importance of mitigating global warming and of investment in the adaptation and maintenance of infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has a sparse population but is a climate hotspot.
SN  - 2662-4435
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
ID  - Ran2022
ER  -